Traders on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are expressing confidence that one or more exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in bitcoin (BTC) will be launched in the United States within the next two weeks. Currently, shares of the contract “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” are being traded at 89 cents on the Yes side, indicating an 89% probability of the highly-anticipated event occurring by the second half of the month. This probability has significantly increased from around 50% a month ago.
The speculation surrounding the imminent launch of a US-based spot ETF has captured the attention of the market since early October. As a result, bitcoin’s value has surged by over 55% to trade above $45,000. The optimism stems from the belief that the introduction of ETFs will attract billions of dollars in investor funds to the bitcoin market.
Polymarket, a prediction market platform established in 2020, has become one of the leading platforms for investors to place bets on various events. Currently, traders are indicating an 89% chance of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving one or more spot ETFs by January 15. The platform has seen $437,394 in bets placed on an ETF-dedicated prediction contract, which will settle as “Yes” if the SEC approves any ETF by the specified date.
According to Reuters, the SEC may notify the 14 current spot ETF applicants as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, granting them the green light to launch their ETFs in the coming weeks. Some traders have taken positions on the No side of the contract as a hedge against potential losses in the spot/futures market. If the SEC delays the expected ETF launch, there is a possibility that bitcoin’s price may experience a drop.
One trader explained their strategy, stating, “I’m buying No as an insurance against my Long positions. If the ETF will not be approved, the market will dump hard, but I will still make profits.” This approach highlights the cautious approach some traders are taking to protect their investments.
Overall, the anticipation of a bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC has generated significant interest and activity on the Polymarket platform. Traders are closely monitoring the developments and placing their bets accordingly. The outcome of the SEC’s decision will undoubtedly have a substantial impact on the cryptocurrency market and the future of bitcoin.