Bitcoin’s October Blues: Will a Bullish Rebound Save BTC?

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a rocky start to the traditionally bullish month of October, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting its performance. Despite this challenging beginning, there is optimism among bulls for a potential turnaround later in the month.

The leading digital asset by reported market cap experienced a tumultuous start to what is historically its most bullish month since 2013. October has typically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with a median return of 21.2%. However, BTC briefly dropped below the critical $60,000 level before rebounding to $61,179 at the time of writing. This volatile price movement led to liquidations worth over $32 million for Bitcoin and slightly above $18 million for Ethereum (ETH).

Over the past week, Bitcoin has seen a 6.9% decline, while major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB have experienced even greater losses. Despite this, historical data from CoinGlass suggests that Bitcoin’s price appreciation typically occurs in the latter part of October. The initial days of the month have historically been less favorable for BTC prices, with October 1 showing gains only once since 2013.

Several factors are weighing on Bitcoin’s price action, including its fourth halving in April 2024 and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in September. However, rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential elections in November are overshadowing these positive developments.

Despite the current challenges, some crypto analysts remain confident about Bitcoin’s potential for a rebound later in the year. Analysts from Standard Chartered and 10x Research see opportunities for a crypto rally in Q4 2024, citing factors such as declining Bitcoin dominance and rising Ethereum gas fees. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term market crash.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $61,179, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours. As the month progresses, market participants will be closely watching for any signs of a bullish rebound for Bitcoin amidst the current geopolitical and economic uncertainties.